Referendum(s) In Nigeria: My Predictions.
South East: If you conduct a referendum at the South East as at today (23/6/17), over 50% would vote yes to leave Nigeria. The spirit of Biafra runs in the body, blood, and DNA of over 80% Igbos.
South South: A referendum at the South South part of Nigeria as at today would result in a yes vote winning. That is, over 50% would vote to secede and have their republic. However, there would be the emergence of several republics as every small tribe within the region would want to be an independent country. It’s important to note that there are small countries/Islands with less than 20,000 people.
South West: Presented with above scenarios, the South West would vote overwhelming yes to have their Oduduwa Republic.
North Central: If the above 3 regions votes yes to leave Nigeria, then North Central would also vote overwhelming yes to leave. Again there would also be the emergence of so many small republics, as many small tribes would prefer to be independent.
North West: Similar scenario would play out at this region the Christians, the Moslems, other smaller tribes would probably wish to stay on their own or to join others.
North East: This region would have no choice but to have its republic.
Agitations for referendum or self determination are not going away soon, so long as Nigeria remains at this present structure. There are injustices in the system. These would continue to provide the catalysts for the agitation of self determination/secession. These agitations might enter a different stage, that might be difficult to control or stop.
With the near 100% success of the Pro Biafran sit at home protest on 30th May 2017, at the entire South East, and if they decide to form a political party or adopt a political or join one by proxy and win something like a state governorship election, then the game would change a lot. Imagine where a pro Bifran group is controlling a state with huge resources.