Iran US Likely War: Consequences.
Trump is risking a war with Iran & #WWIII. Pompeo wants this war. Trump NEEDS a war to distract from his impeachment & ever worse details leaking. So there is a big push for war in Iran. This is a VERY VERY incredibly BIGLY bad idea.
The obvious comparison with Iran is Iraq (they are neighbors) hoping it could be fast and ‘easy’. Some see parallels to Afghanistan (also neighbor of Iran) the longest war of USA. Others fear Iran could be another Vietnam. Or as bloody as the Korean War.
Since WW2 USA has been involved in ‘big’ wars with 4 nations (excluding the smaller conflicts like Bosnia, Somalia or Syria). Korean war (fought to a draw), Vietnam war (USA lost), Afghanistan war (longest war, still ongoing, can’t be won) and Iraq (2 times)
So let’s start Iran with geography. Iran is a HUGE country. It is as big as North Korea… plus North Vietnam…. plus Afghanistan… and Iraq – COMBINED. Yes Iran is a giant country, not EASY to defeat a LARGE country. But lets look at its terrain…
Iraq War was the tank war in the desert and the smart missiles, and heavy air power. Tanks work well in wars in the DESERT. USA had tanks in Vietnam and Afghanistan too. THEY DIDN’T HELP. America lost those wars. Russians tried tanks in Afthanistan too: lost
A DRAMATIC difference between neighbors Iraq and Iran, is that Iraq is flatland desert sand. And Iran is MOUNTAINS like.. Afghanistan. Not suitable terrain for tank warfare (for much of the country, there are some plains yes)
So then air power. USA has the world’s biggest and most powerful air force. BY FAR the strongest in the world. And what is America’s favorite air power tool? The remotely piloted ‘drone’ like the Predator. Unmanned killer in the sky. Nearly unstoppable
Who invented the modern remotely piloted drone? Not USA. It was invented by Israel (Tadiran Mastif and IAI Scout). Most Western Air Forces have deployed Israeli Drones. Most drones flying today include Israeli licenced tech. the Predator has Israeli tech…
The unmanned remotedly-piloted warplane, the ‘drone’ is America’s favorite tool to fight wars today. And who used them first? Israel. Who used them SECOND? A DECADE before USA deployed drones in a war?… yeah… IRAN (against Iraq in its decade-long war)
The USA has never fought an adversary who HAD DRONES. Iran has LONGER MILITARY experience using drones IN BATTLE, than USA. and Iran was the first nation to deploy OFFENSIVE weapons onboard drones (when even Israel only used them for ‘spying’). Nasty enemy!
Lets skip airplanes and tanks. Lets go to the most expensive weapon system ever deployed – US Navy’s mighty aircraft carriers. USA used air power from carriers in most of its wars including Korea, Vietnam (John McCain was a NAVY pilot) and Iraq..
Iran does NOT have aircraft carriers. But they have the WORST enemy for carriers instead – SUBMARINES. North Korea did not have submarines during Korean war. North Vietnam didn’t have subs in Vietnam war. Iraq didn’t have subs in either of the Iraq wars
Since World War 2, USA has not fought ANY war against ANY rival including the small wars Somalia, Syria and Bosnia – where the adversary operated submarines. Iran has submarines. They CHANGE the combat equation at sea – TOTALLY.
Lets talk population. Iran’s population is near 90 million. That is about same as 3 out of the four rivals I mentioned: Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and North Vietnam. Take THREE of those four, the population (when they had their war) is about 90 million
Then lets talk about INDUSTRIALIZATION. Some idiots think ‘Iranians are beduins’ like ‘arabs’. Iranians are not arabic people. They are PERSIANS who are related to Europeans. Iran is an INDUSTRIALIZED country, similar to Southern European countries
When USA fought North Korea, it was a peasant nation. North Vietnam was a farming peasant nation. Afghanistan was and still is one of poorest and least literate countries on planet. Iraq was an oil-only economy. Iranians are EDUCATED and DIVERSE economy
I do not mean that Iran could ‘win’ a war it STARTED against USA (like say a Pearl Harbor style sneak attack). I mean Iran is FAR worse rival than Vietnam or Afghanistan, a war USA cannot – CANNOT win. It would be a DECADES long quagmire of death and blood
When USA fought Iraq (twice) that ‘nation’ was in effective civil war, among THREE factions (Sunnis closely aligned with Syria, Shias aligned with Kuwait and Iran, and the Kurds). Iran is a HOMOGENOUS nation, essentially all Persians. Not DIVIDED
Earlier in 2019 Trump talked of 120,000 troops for Iran War. HAHAHA. Iran fought a DECADE-LONG war, when Saddam Hussein yes Iraq attacked. With 600,000 soldiers! When France & Soviets FULLY supported Iraq, & UK & USA supported modestly Iraq & nobody Iran
Saddam had superiority in tanks, airplanes, soldiers, plus Saddam had MILITARY support of essentially all major weapons-providers. And IRAN HAD NO SUPPORT (in fact, Israel secretly helped Iran a little bit). Yet Iran pushed Iraq back, to stalemate
Iran has what Vietnam had – Vietnam had ALREADY defeated Japan & France, by the time US went in. Iran has what Afghanistan had – Afghanistan had ALREADY defeated Britain & Soviets (Russians) before US went in. And USA could not win its OWN wars vs VN & Afgh
I do not mean, that Iran could in any way ‘win’ against the USA (like invade Texas or Alaska haha). But the USA CANNOT DEFEAT an enemy like Iran, this strong, this big, this competent, this HEAVILY ARMED with ADVANCED weapons who is UNIFIED & experienced
Trump & Pompeo are pushing for a war against Iran. Trump wants ANY war to distract from his problems. A war in Iran would be NOTHING like the ‘easy’ wars in Iraq. War in Iran would be like the mess in Vietnam & the unending war in Afghanistan – only WORSE
If Iran had done something HORRIBLE – like how Saddam Hussein INVADED and took over Kuwait – then maybe it might make sense to build a coalition for war. What we should know is that TRUMP’s lender – SAUDI ARABIA – want American soldiers to go die in Iran
Saudi Arabia sees Iran as its regional rival. While both are Muslim nations, they have differing religious views (Iran is Shia, Saudi is Sunni). Saudis would love nothing more, than to see Iranian blood spilled – by AMERICAN soldiers dying there. Wrong war!
A war with Iran will not be quick, easy as Iraq
A war with Iran will be as bloody as North Korea
A war with Iran will be as unwinnable as Vietnam
A war with Iran will be as long as Afghanistan
USA will be as hated as with Vietnam
Americans will hate this war like Vietnam
Many reading this thread do not understand how Drone Warfare TOTALLY changes warfare (aren’t they just another kind of warplane) or why Drones bring Iran war INTO CHICAGO AND DALLAS.
By Tomi T Ahonen